Forecast and Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Cultivated Land Pressure

In this paper,the Spatio-temporal characteristics of cultivated land pressure and driving factors are analyzed based on the theory and model of cultivated land pressure index,and the tend of future index of cultivated land pressure is forecasted.The conclusions are as follows:① The pressure index in cultivated land in Shaanxi province is gradually increased,cultivated land pressure is mounting,because the cultivated land is greatly reduced and the population increases gradually;② The cultivated land area change in Shaanxi Province has experienced 3 stages since recent 28 years,i.e,rapid reduction,sharp reduction and slow reduction.Although the rate of cultivated land reduced is slower in the past few years,along with the rapid economic development and the need of economic construction,the cultivated land area still decreases greatly.③ The difference of cultivated land pressure among cities is inconspicuous,but the pressure index of cultivated land in all cities are more than 1 and the cultivated land pressure of every city is high;④ The order of growth for cultivated land pressure index in different regions is the plateau of northern Shaanxi provincethe Qinba mountainous regionthe Guanzhong Plain.⑤ The forecast shows that the index of cultivated land pressure will reach to 2.237 in 2015 and the cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi is increasing year by year.According to the present situation,some suggestions are proposed in order to reduce the cultivated land pressure Shaanxi.