Analysis and Prediction of Temporal and Spatial Pressure Index of Cultivated Land in Jiangxi Province

Based on the model of the per capita minimal area of cultivated land and the pressure index of cultivated land, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pressure index of cultivated land in Jiangxi Province using GIS software since 1981, and predicted per capita area of cultivated land, per capita minimal area of cultivated land and pressure index of cultivated land between 2007 and 2015 based on the sliding prognostic theory. The result showed that the pressure index of cultivated land was on the rise and different obviously among different prefectures between 1981 and 2006; in the coming 9 years, the pressure index of cultivated land will further increase with the decrease of per capita area of cultivated land, and it will be up to 1.61 in 2015. At the same time, the pressure index of cultivated land will decrease to 0.0306 hm2 per capita and the grain issue will be quite severe. Therefore, the most effective countermeasures for decreasing the pressure of cultivated land and relaxing the contradiction between man and land are preventing non-agricultural activities from occupying cultivated land, adjusting the structure of land utilization, increasing the re-cultivated index and raising the efficiency of cultivated land.