Study on the risk factors in recurrent cerebral infarction and the establishment of prediction model

Objective To explore the risk factors of recurrent cerebral infarction and establish prediction model for recurrent cerebral infarction. Methods We retrospectively reviewed the charts of patients diagnosed with first cerebral infarction during the period from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2011 and followed up the patients. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate recurrence rates and to plot relapse-free survival curves of patients at different levels of predictive factors. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select independent risk factors of patients' relapse and establish prediction model for recurrent cerebral infarction. Results A total of 367 cases of cerebral infarction were included, followed up for 1 to 54 months, with a median follow-up time of 22 months. During the follow-up, 74 patients(20.2%) relapse, with the relapse-free survival time of 1~32 months. The 1-year, 2-year,3-year cumulative recurrence-free survival rates were 80.0%, 66.3%, 52.0%, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis found that age ≥60 years, history of hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, total cholesterol ≥5.17 mmol/L were the independent risk factors for recurrence with cerebral infarction(P0.05). The risk of recurrence in patients with cerebral infarction function model expression was. Conclusion Recurrent cerebral infarction is the result of many factors. Age ≥60 years, history of hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, total cholesterol ≥5.17 mmol/L are the major risk factors. Intervention and treatment of the controllable factors is one of the important ways to prevent the recurrence of cerebral infarctione.