The value of APACHEIIand Ranson scoring systems on pridicting death risk of severe acute pancreatitis

Objective To evaluate the clinical applied value of Ranson and APACHEⅡ scoring systems on prediction of the severity and prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis(SAP).Methods One hundred and eighty-five patients with SAP,who were admitted into West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2005 to January 2008 were studied retrospectively.Data associated to Ranson and APACHEⅡ scoring systems within 24 hours were recorded.The scores of death and survival patients and the correlation between the two scoring systems were analyzed.The area under the ROC curve(AUC) was compared in assessing the death rate of SAP.Results Ranson score was 1 to 10(4.72±2.18) in 185 SAP patients.APACHEⅡscore within 24 hours was 2 to 33(12.36±6.39).The Ranson and APACHEⅡscores of death patients were 3~10(6.53±1.74),5~33(19.32±5.86).There were significant differences between death and survival patients(P0.05).The two scoring systems were positively correlated(r=0.61)(P=0.00).From AUC,Ranson and APACHEⅡ scores could predict the mortality of SAP patients,but there was no significant difference(P0.05).Their diagnosis thresholds were 5 and 7.Conclusion Ranson and APACHEⅡscoring systems both can predict the death rate of SAP,but their prognosis ability are similar.We really need some ideal prognosis scoring systems in clinics.