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2010•Practical Preventive MedicineRequires access

Syndromic Prediction Models of ILI Based ARIMA

Liqun Huang

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Abstract

Objective To investigate the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model in the monitoring of influenza symptoms.Methods ILI monitoring data of Zhuhai City in recent 4 years were tested to analyze monthly by ARIMA model.Results ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12 model could be as a good model for influenza-like illness.Conclusions ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of influenza-like illness and provide scientific methods for infectious disease control and public health decision-making.

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What this paper is about

Objective To investigate the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model in the monitoring of influenza symptoms.Methods ILI monitoring data of Zhuhai City in recent 4 years were tested to analyze monthly by ARIMA model.Results ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12 model could be as a good model for influenza-like illness.Conclusions ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of influenza-like illness and provide scientific methods for infectious disease control and public health decision-making.

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Available abstract

Objective To investigate the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model in the monitoring of influenza symptoms.Methods ILI monitoring data of Zhuhai City in recent 4 years were tested to analyze monthly by ARIMA model.Results ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)12 model could be as a good model for influenza-like illness.Conclusions ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of influenza-like illness and provide scientific methods for infectious disease control and public health decision-making.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Incidence (geometry), Statistics, Seasonal influenza, Autoregressive model, Medicine, Econometrics, Time series

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