Forecasting Avian Influenza incidence in Java and Madura area

Avian Influenza is a disease that becomes serious outbreak within animal population at Indonesia. The outbreak not only gives impact on economic losses for farmers but also threats human health. Time series forecasting of Avian Influenza incidence is implemented to predict the occurrence of disease in the future. The result is valuable for the decision maker to make strategic planning to control the outbreaks. This research applied ARIMA method to forecast Avian Influenza incidence in Java and Madura Island. The data were obtained from Animal Disease Investigation Center of Wates Yogyakarta. ARIMA is used because it can be updated rapidly in order to adapt to new data. The relationship between dependent and independent variable in ARIMA model is easy to interpret. The result shows that ARIMA may represent the future incident model in the case of Avian Influenza in Java and Madura Island. ARIMA has MSE=623.4764, Theil's U1=0.447343 and Theil's U2=0.908758.