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APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL IN FORECASTING INCIDENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS

Wang Wen-chang

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Abstract

[Objective]To explore the feasibility of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to predict the incidence of tuberculosis and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.[Methods]ARIMA model was established basing on the tuberculosis incidence in Chongqing during 1997-2005 and the prediction effect of ARIMA model was also evaluated.[Results]Model of ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence in the previous months. The fit values of incidence in 2005 were consistent with the actual data of incidence.[Conclusion]ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of tuberculosis and to predict the incidence in future,which can be the scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.

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What this paper is about

[Objective]To explore the feasibility of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to predict the incidence of tuberculosis and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.[Methods]ARIMA model was established basing on the tuberculosis incidence in Chongqing during 1997-2005 and the prediction effect of ARIMA model was also evaluated.[Results]Model of ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence in the previous months. The fit values of incidence in 2005 were consistent with the actual data of incidence.[Conclusion]ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of tuberculosis and to predict the incidence in future,which can be the scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.

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Available abstract

[Objective]To explore the feasibility of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model to predict the incidence of tuberculosis and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.[Methods]ARIMA model was established basing on the tuberculosis incidence in Chongqing during 1997-2005 and the prediction effect of ARIMA model was also evaluated.[Results]Model of ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence in the previous months. The fit values of incidence in 2005 were consistent with the actual data of incidence.[Conclusion]ARIMA model can be used to exactly fit the changes of the incidence of tuberculosis and to predict the incidence in future,which can be the scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of tuberculosis.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Incidence (geometry), Tuberculosis, Statistics, Medicine, Econometrics, Time series, Mathematics

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