A Forecast of Chinese Future Population through the Data of Sixth Census——the Population Decay of Future China

The prediction models which were used to predict the future population size of China do not reflect the trends of Chinese future population,because they ignored the demographic influences from historical events. Chinese population structure is special,and the important demographic indexes like total fertility rate, the sex ratio,and life expectancy do not accord with the prediction functions which have existed. In this paper, we use the data of the sixth census of China and a new method to predict the trend of Chinese future population. The prediction shows that after 2020,within different levels of total fertility rates,the size of Chinese population will present a trend of quick decay.