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2008•IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)Requires access

Uncertain demographic dynamics in China

Qiang Ren, Xingzhong Zheng, Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov

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Abstract

The paper systematically observes the changes of main demographic indices such as fertility,sex ratio at birth and age structure based on the 2000 census,and examines the uncertainty of China’s future population trends with the method of probable population prediction.The result indicates that there are large variations among estimates of China’s current fertility rates,sex ratios at birth,and the numbers of youth,which directly affect the uncertainty of China’s current and future population.The uncertainties of future population caused by current population conditions are valuable information to the public.

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What this paper is about

The paper systematically observes the changes of main demographic indices such as fertility,sex ratio at birth and age structure based on the 2000 census,and examines the uncertainty of China’s future population trends with the method of probable population prediction.The result indicates that there are large variations among estimates of China’s current fertility rates,sex ratios at birth,and the numbers of youth,which directly affect the uncertainty of China’s current and future population.The uncertainties of future population caused by current population conditions are valuable information to the public.

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Available abstract

The paper systematically observes the changes of main demographic indices such as fertility,sex ratio at birth and age structure based on the 2000 census,and examines the uncertainty of China’s future population trends with the method of probable population prediction.The result indicates that there are large variations among estimates of China’s current fertility rates,sex ratios at birth,and the numbers of youth,which directly affect the uncertainty of China’s current and future population.The uncertainties of future population caused by current population conditions are valuable information to the public.

Key concepts: China, Fertility, Census, Population, Birth rate, Demography, Population momentum, Population projection

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