Mode Choice Behavior and Modal Shift to Public Transport in Developing Countries - the Case of Hanoi City

Asian cities are developing urban mass rapid transit systems to attract a great number of motorcycle and car users. However, there might be uncertainties in modal shift, thereby risking the effectiveness of public transport investments. This study aims to explore patterns of people's travel behavior and anticipate mode choice changes under intervention scenarios. Hanoi City is a case study. A stated preference survey is conducted and stated preference/revealed preference (SP/RP) mode choice models are estimated for different population segments. It is found that a significant number of private vehicle users might still sticking to their vehicles, trip chaining and presence of kids aged 11 or younger in the family may prevent its members from shifting to public transport. Longer travel distances may not necessarily lead to a higher modal shift ratio. The results would be helpful to policy making towards sustainable public transport development and effective control of private transport in developing cities.