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Gaming Nonreduction Measures (NoREDs) for Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)

Richard E. Darilek

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Abstract

NoREDs stands for nonreduction measures. Such measures have been proposed to accompany reductions of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) as part of the arms control treaty negotiated between NATO and Warsaw Pact member states in Vienna, Austria. NoREDs originally proposed by NATO for CFE include: exchanges of information (e.g., on residual forces and treaty-limited equipment) ; stabilizing measures (e.g., notification of reserve callups, 42 days in advance, of military activities exceeding 40,000 troops, 1 year beforehand); verification measures (e.g., on-site ground and aerial inspection); and noncircumvention provisions. The NoREDs Study at CAA was designed to assess whatever additional contribution such measures might make to security and stability in Europe. To simulate the dynamical political-military environment in which NoREDs would operate, the study employed CAA's Contingency Force Analysis Wargame (CFAW) in conjunction with a more traditional political-military gaming framework. A Blue Team representing NATO and a Red Team representing the USSR used NoREDs to help manage relationships between them during peacetime, in a crisis, and on the eve of a potential conflict. CFAW furnished most of the information and intelligence-gathering tools available to both teams (e.g., simulated air and ground inspection capabilities).

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NoREDs stands for nonreduction measures. Such measures have been proposed to accompany reductions of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) as part of the arms control treaty negotiated between NATO and Warsaw Pact member states in Vienna, Austria. NoREDs originally proposed by NATO for CFE include: exchanges of information (e.g., on residual forces and treaty-limited equipment) ; stabilizing measures (e.g., notification of reserve callups, 42 days in advance, of military activities exceeding 40,000 troops, 1 year beforehand); verification measures (e.g., on-site ground and aerial inspection); and noncircumvention provisions. The NoREDs Study at CAA was designed to assess whatever additional contribution such measures might make to security and stability in Europe. To simulate the dynamical political-military environment in which NoREDs would operate, the study employed CAA's Contingency Force Analysis Wargame (CFAW) in conjunction with a more traditional political-military gaming framework. A Blue Team representing NATO and a Red Team representing the USSR used NoREDs to help manage relationships between them during peacetime, in a crisis, and on the eve of a potential conflict. CFAW furnished most of the information and intelligence-gathering tools available to both teams (e.g., simulated air and ground inspection capabilities).

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Available abstract

NoREDs stands for nonreduction measures. Such measures have been proposed to accompany reductions of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) as part of the arms control treaty negotiated between NATO and Warsaw Pact member states in Vienna, Austria. NoREDs originally proposed by NATO for CFE include: exchanges of information (e.g., on residual forces and treaty-limited equipment) ; stabilizing measures (e.g., notification of reserve callups, 42 days in advance, of military activities exceeding 40,000 troops, 1 year beforehand); verification measures (e.g., on-site ground and aerial inspection); and noncircumvention provisions. The NoREDs Study at CAA was designed to assess whatever additional contribution such measures might make to security and stability in Europe. To simulate the dynamical political-military environment in which NoREDs would operate, the study employed CAA's Contingency Force Analysis Wargame (CFAW) in conjunction with a more traditional political-military gaming framework. A Blue Team representing NATO and a Red Team representing the USSR used NoREDs to help manage relationships between them during peacetime, in a crisis, and on the eve of a potential conflict. CFAW furnished most of the information and intelligence-gathering tools available to both teams (e.g., simulated air and ground inspection capabilities).

Key concepts: Peacetime, Treaty, Arms control, North Atlantic Treaty, Politics, Military doctrine, Operations research, Contingency

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