Research of the Deviation of Passenger Flow Forecast of Urban Rail Transit--A Case Study of Metro Line 2 in Xi'an

In general, urban rail transit passenger flow tends to be forecasted based on the established planning information. In the rapid process of urban development, however, the actual passenger flow volume probably fluctuates due to the changes of many external circumstances, which may result in a negative effect on the transport efficiency of urban rail transit systems. This paper aims to select evaluation indexes about the influence factors of passenger flow deviation and establish an index system according to AHP. In the meantime, the degrees of influence on the indexes are separately confirmed. Then, the actual influence which the factors exert on the state of operation of Xi'an metro line 2 is evaluated by the fuzzy evaluation method as an example, and is contrasted with the predicted data in the engineering feasibility study stage to verify the result above. The goal of this paper is to be of value in planning metro lines in Xi'an or in other cities.