Anticipated transients without scram

This article discusses in various degrees of depth the publications WASH-1270, WASH-1400, and NUREG-0460, and has as its purpose a description of the technical work done by Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) personnel and its contractors on the subject of anticipated transients without scram (ATWS). It demonstrates the close relation between the probability of scram failure derived from historical scram data and that derived from the use of component data in a model of a system (the so-called synthesis method), such as was done in WASH-1400. The inherent conservatism of these models is demonstrated by showing that they predict significantly more events than have in fact occurred and that such models still predict scram failure probabilities low enough to make ATWS an insignificant contributor to accident risk.