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Evaluation of the sensitivity of reactor risks to uncertainties. [PWR; BWR]

S.L.K. Rountree, S.W. Hatch

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Abstract

The increase in the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in the evaluation of nuclear reactor safety has prompted a need for evaluation of the sensitivity of PRA results to specific uncertainties. This paper discusses results from the evaluation of the sensitivity of reactor risks to uncertainty in the in-vessel steam explosion probability, containment failure pressure, source term release magnitudes, site population density, and interdiction dose criterion. These uncertainties are addressed individually; potential synergistic effects are not considered. Examination of the uncertainties should enhance the use of PRA as applied to the evaluation of nuclear reactor safety.

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What this paper is about

The increase in the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in the evaluation of nuclear reactor safety has prompted a need for evaluation of the sensitivity of PRA results to specific uncertainties. This paper discusses results from the evaluation of the sensitivity of reactor risks to uncertainty in the in-vessel steam explosion probability, containment failure pressure, source term release magnitudes, site population density, and interdiction dose criterion. These uncertainties are addressed individually; potential synergistic effects are not considered. Examination of the uncertainties should enhance the use of PRA as applied to the evaluation of nuclear reactor safety.

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Available abstract

The increase in the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in the evaluation of nuclear reactor safety has prompted a need for evaluation of the sensitivity of PRA results to specific uncertainties. This paper discusses results from the evaluation of the sensitivity of reactor risks to uncertainty in the in-vessel steam explosion probability, containment failure pressure, source term release magnitudes, site population density, and interdiction dose criterion. These uncertainties are addressed individually; potential synergistic effects are not considered. Examination of the uncertainties should enhance the use of PRA as applied to the evaluation of nuclear reactor safety.

Key concepts: Probabilistic risk assessment, Nuclear engineering, Sensitivity (control systems), Pressurized water reactor, Containment (computer programming), Risk assessment, Probabilistic logic, Population

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