Lunar mission architecture evaluation using a decision analysis approach

President Bush's call for a return to the Moon, followed by the human exploration of Mars, has spawned numerous ideas for implementing what has been called the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Because a return to the Moon has been designated as the first step of SEI, the time is rapidly approaching to select one of the many mission architectures proposed for the exploration, settlement, and exploitation of the Moon. The evaluation of alternative archictures, and the subsequent selection of the 'best' alternative will be critical to the success of this, and other, space programs. The following presentation discusses the application of systems analysis to the evaluation and selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture. The role of a decision model in the evaluation/selection process is discussed, and different types of decision models are presented. These models are analyzed and discussed in terms of their applicability to the selection of a Lunar outpost mission architecture.