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IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION POLICY ON THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RETAIL ACTIVITY

Clifford R. Kern, Steven R. Lerman, R J Parcells, Richard A Wolfe

Abstract

This research identifies relationships between transportation policy and the location of retail activity by modelling three key components of the spatial distribution of retail sales: (1) shopping travel and its relationship to household characteristics, transportation service, and attributes of shipping destinations; (2) household retail expenditures and their distribution among alternative retail centers; and (3) entry of retail firms at alternative locations in response to perceived profitability. Specific models included: (1) a joint disaggregate model of mode and destination choice for home-based shopping at major regional shopping centers; (2) a joint disaggregate model of mode, destination, frequency, and purpose for noon-hour trips by downtown office workers; (3) procedures for translating trip distributions into forecasts of retail sales; and (4) a multinomial logit model of competition by stores for retail floorspace. The models have been used to forecast the spatial distribution of retail sales for various hypothetical policy alternatives.

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Key concepts: TRIPS architecture, Destinations, Business, Multinomial logistic regression, Distribution (mathematics), Downtown, Retail sales, Marketing