MODELING FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT PERFORMANCE USING CANADIAN HISTORIC DATA

The paper describes the development of a Second-Generation Pavement Management System (PMS2) recently completed for the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Canada (MTO). One of the advanced features built into the system is a number of performance prediction models used for analyzing short-medium term pavement needs at the network level for maintenance and rehabilitation treatments planning purposes. Data samples recording more than 25 years of field pavement performance history were used in modelling deterioration characteristics of flexible pavements for each functional class of road. The models range from simple polynomial curves to sophisticated sigmoidal performance models. Substantial efforts were put into this phase of model analyses, including data source and pre-process, model analysis, as well as using engineering judgement to assess the impacts of various pavement rehabilitation treatments on overall pavement performance.