FORECASTING TRAVEL DEMAND IN SMALL AREAS BY USING DISAGGREGATE BEHAVIORAL MODELS

A study was done to forecast the patronage of a new transit system proposed for a suburban city in the San Francisco Bay Area, using disaggregate behavioral models of transportation choice. The results suggested that behavioral models of the type used in the study can be applied to travel demand forecasting in small urban areas but that additional development and testing of the models should be done before thay are used for policy decisions. The time and expense required for data collection and analysis were within reasonable limits for general application. Although implementation of the forecasting methodologies was quite successful, results of tests of the predictive accuracy of the behavioral models were disappointing. /Authors/