DIESELS' UNFOLDING DRAMA

Fuel economy attained by diesel engines and the market for diesel-powered cars are addressed. By the 1990's, it is estimated that at least 30% of all new cars sold domestically, regardless of size, will be powered by diesel engines. The fuel economy of diesels compensates for their relatively low performance, noise, and smell, particularly since the 27.5 mpg corporate average fuel economy standard promulgated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for 1985 is already outdated. Volkswagen is a diesel leader in the United States, paced only by General Motors in the total number of diesel cars sold. Both General Motors and Ford have plans to import four-cylinder diesel engines. If financially able, Chrysler will introduce a diesel version of its 3.7-liter gasoline engine, with a four-cylinder to follow. American Motors will probably have a General Motors diesel or one supplied by its French affiliate (Renault). General Motors disputes the Environmental Protection Agency contention that diesels pose a threat to public health. The task of emission reduction will be eased by vehicle weight reductions since weight and engine size are major determinants of tailpipe pollution. Component supply (e.g. fuel injection equipment) is the only drawback to diesel market penetration. General Motors offers a good example of what may lie ahead as its diesel penetration grows toward 15-20% of total sales forecast for 1985.