Demographic responses to famine.

It is helpful in considering the demographic effects of famine to distinguish between short- and long-term responses. Short-term responses are primarily mediated through biological process and the long-term responses involve behavioral adjustments to the crisis. A hypothetical famine of half-year duration is used to illustrate short-term demographic response in the typical famine-prone developing nation. The analysis reveals that the famine provides little in the way of a check to population growth in the short run. The effects of famine-induced mortality are followed by a compensatory (biologically determined) excess in the birth rate and a deficit in the death rate for some years following the famine. Net excess famine mortality is rapidly made up as normal population growth rates resume. The longer-term and behavioral response may have more serious consequences than the immediate suffering brought about by famine. It is argued that the threat of famine may result in a demand for risk insurance that the presence of children satisfies in part. By means of this mechanism the threat of famine may actually help to maintain high levels of fertility with the effect of perpetuating rapid population growth. It appears evident that the persistence of high fertility and rapid population growth in regions such as South Asia can only increase the probability of famines taking place in the future. During the 1970s for example the rate of population growth in Bangladesh exceeded the growth rate of domestic food production by a wide margin. The food grain requirements that this rapidly growing population define have come to dominate public policy and resources in a way that undermines the governments capacity to prevent famine in the event of future crisis or to plan for positive economic development.