APPLICATION OF A MODAL SPLIT MODEL TO TRAVEL ESTIMATES FOR THE WASHINGTON AREA

TRAVEL ESTIMATES FOR THE WASHINGTON AREA WERE PREPARED BY USING THE GRAVITY MODEL METHOD OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION, PREPARING FORECASTS OF PEAK AND 24-HR PERSON TRAVEL FOR TWO LAND-USE PLANS AND TESTING THE MODAL SPLIT IMPLICATIONS OF VARIOUS HIGHWAYS AND MASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS. THE MODAL SPLIT MODEL APPLIED DURING THESE STUDIES CONSISTS OF TWO PARTS' 1/ EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIPS DESCRIBING HOW TRAVEL MODE CHOICE BEHAVIOR IS RELATED TO BASIC FACTORS IN A NUMBER OF CITIES, AND 2/ A COMPUTER PROGRAM DESIGNED TO FORECAST FUTURE TRAVEL MODE CHOICE BEHAVIOR. IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE MODAL SPLIT MODEL IS AN OPERATIONAL TOOL WHICH PRODUCES RESULTS WITH ACCURACY SIMILAR TO OTHER TECHNIQUES AND PROCEDURES USED IN URBAN TRAVEL FORECASTING.