Travel demand (modal split) estimation by hierarchical measurement

Abstract This paper develops a procedure for travel demand estimation via the Saaty method of Analytic Hierarchy. A stratification of the travel demand by trip‐making and trip attributes has been represented more inclusively in a hierarchy system. Various elements and dimensions of the hierarchy have been hypothesized as different levels of decisions made by trip‐makers. The elements contained in a set of specified matrices of travel attributes have been weighed utilizing a ratio scale, in a process of mapping transportation systems (modal) attributes with the characteristic trip‐making behavior in a hierarchical demand structure. The principal output of this procedure is an estimate of the trip distribution by mode, or modal split. The estimate closely approximates the observed modal split pattern for the inter city travel problem simulated. This procedure is proposed for travel demand forecasting and planning.