A FORECASTING MODEL FOR REGIONAL CAR OWNERSHIP, BASED ON THE COHORT MODEL FOR NATIONAL CAR OWNERSHIP

Present models for regional mobility forecasts appear to generate an increase in mobility by car which is on average too high in comparison with average national increases in mobility as predicted with the national forecasting model. Since predicted growth of mobility by car depends heavily on the predicted growth of car ownership by the same model, it can be suspected that these models tend to overestimate the growth of car ownership. Presently, no independent regional car ownership model exist which could be used as a check on the growth of car ownership in the region as generated by a regional mobility model. It is therefore highly desirable to construct an independent regional car ownership forecast model. This paper outlines the structure of such a model. For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 871533.