A NEW PARADIGM FOR TRANSPORT

Starting with a brief history of the development of transport policy in the UK, the paper shows that transport policies in developed countries have a common objective, to provide for the demand for transport but try to minimise its impact principally through modal diversion. Using information from recent surveys in the US it is demonstrated that there is no abatement in growth of demand for transport and that these policies are not successful in achieving modal diversion. It is shown that high charges for transport allied to strict land use control have been successful in containing transport demand in Singapore and that current pricing of transport elsewhere is not recovering its full cost to society. Developments in information technology are described and it is demonstrated that there is evidence of socioeconomic conditions which are conducive to significant change as a result of this technology. A new paradigm that society should seek to minimise the need for transport, rather than meet demand, is set out. A necessary condition of this is pricing transport for true cost recovery. Charging for environmental pollution is proposed as the basis for true cost recovery and a mechanism for this is postulated. It is suggested that the pace of change will be such that transport planning needs to stop projecting the past, start visualising the future and become a catalyst in support of pattern change. It is also suggested that actions by governments, to change the ways in which they deliver their services, have a major role in fostering change. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E202433.