Risk analysis and Fuzzy Based Model for the Estimation of Contingency Cost of Construction Projects

Abstract: Construction projects play a significant role in the economic and overall development of any country. They also involve significant financial investments, and costs related to risks are known as contingency costs. In order to determine the contingency cost, contractors must take project risks into account while estimating and projecting the cost of completion. Typically, contractors use their subjective judgment to estimate cost contingencies, ranging from 5 to 10% of the expected cost based on previous projects that are comparable to theirs. Nevertheless, this approach lacks a solid foundation and is difficult to support or defend. As a result, more impartial techniques for calculating project cost contingency have been offered. But the majority of approaches still depend on formal modeling techniques, which are difficult to implement in the construction sector. Based on risk analysis and the fuzzy expert system idea, this study suggests a flexible and logical way for estimating cost contingency that might take into account contractors' subjective assessment. The creation of a cost contingency model for Indian construction and infrastructure projects was the suggested technique in this study. A case study project is examined to show how the proposed model may be used. The validation result showed that, in comparison to real cost contingencies, the system's forecasts were within 20% of accuracy.