2023Advances in Economics Management and Political SciencesOpen access

Stock Price Forecasting and Analysis Algorithm Based on ARIMA Taking Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index as an Example

Yuxin Zhou

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Abstract

China's capital market has been expanding quickly in recent years, and the stock market in particular has drawn a significant quantity of cash. Additionally, the stock price has come under increasing scrutiny as a key metric for assessing the economic strength and degree of development of listed companies. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE50) index, as an indicator that comprehensively reflects the stock market's movement, is conducive to market participants' analysis of the market. Therefore, this paper selects the daily closing price of the SSE50 index from June 21, 2018 to June 21, 2023 as the research data, and uses the R Studio as the software to implement it, and first conducts the stationary test and the white noise test on the data, and finally selects ARIMA(0,1,0) as the model to forecast and analyze the future development of the SSE50 index, in order to provide investment indicators for investors and a reliable basis for corporate policy decision makers.

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China's capital market has been expanding quickly in recent years, and the stock market in particular has drawn a significant quantity of cash. Additionally, the stock price has come under increasing scrutiny as a key metric for assessing the economic strength and degree of development of listed companies. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE50) index, as an indicator that comprehensively reflects the stock market's movement, is conducive to market participants' analysis of the market. Therefore, this paper selects the daily closing price of the SSE50 index from June 21, 2018 to June 21, 2023 as the research data, and uses the R Studio as the software to implement it, and first conducts the stationary test and the white noise test on the data, and finally selects ARIMA(0,1,0) as the model to forecast and analyze the future development of the SSE50 index, in order to provide investment indicators for investors and a reliable basis for corporate policy decision makers.

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Available abstract

China's capital market has been expanding quickly in recent years, and the stock market in particular has drawn a significant quantity of cash. Additionally, the stock price has come under increasing scrutiny as a key metric for assessing the economic strength and degree of development of listed companies. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE50) index, as an indicator that comprehensively reflects the stock market's movement, is conducive to market participants' analysis of the market. Therefore, this paper selects the daily closing price of the SSE50 index from June 21, 2018 to June 21, 2023 as the research data, and uses the R Studio as the software to implement it, and first conducts the stationary test and the white noise test on the data, and finally selects ARIMA(0,1,0) as the model to forecast and analyze the future development of the SSE50 index, in order to provide investment indicators for investors and a reliable basis for corporate policy decision makers.

Key concepts: Capitalization-weighted index, Stock exchange, Stock market, Market maker, Stock market bubble, Econometrics, Stock market index, Autoregressive integrated moving average

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