Application of Uncertainty Analysis in Distributed Planning of Urban Comprehensive Energy System

Abstract The conventional distributed planning method of urban integrated energy systems uses the LINMAP coupling model to obtain the optimal solution of planning, which is vulnerable to the impact of decision-making load demand, resulting in the final annual value of energy planning costs being too high. Therefore, it is necessary to design a new distributed planning method for urban integrated energy systems based on uncertainty analysis. Based on the analysis of uncertain factors, the mathematical model of equipment planning of the energy system is constructed, and combined with the energy storage relationship, the distributed planning operation algorithm of the integrated energy system is designed, thus completing the distributed planning of the integrated energy system. The experimental results show that the annual value of energy planning cost of different system equipment is low after using the designed distributed planning method of urban integrated energy systems based on uncertainty analysis, which proves that the designed distributed planning method has good planning effect, economy and certain application value, and has made certain contributions to reducing energy planning loss.