The Effect of Advanced Education on the Retention and the Promotion of Surface Warfare Officers in the U.S. Navy.

Abstract : The goal of this thesis is to analyze the effect of advanced education on the retention and promotion of Navy Surface Warfare Officers (SWO). Multivariate probit models are used to estimate the effects of education, accession sources, demographic variables, and prior service status on retention and promotion. The data set used in this study is obtained from the online Navy Econometric Modeling System (NEMS). It was constructed from annual snapshots of SWO officers in the Navy between 2000 and 2011. The data set includes 73,347 officer-year observations on 14,422 officers. We create cohorts based on the entry years of the officers and track their retention between the end of their initial service obligation (4 or 5 years), until the end of their 10th year of service. For the promotion analysis, we analyzed promotion to O-4 by the 10th year of service. The retention analysis finds that Master's degree holders and First Professional degree holders are more likely to remain in the Navy until 10 years of service as compared to Baccalaureate degree holders. The promotion analysis also finds that Master's degree holders are more likely to be promoted compared to Baccalaureate degree holders.