A Statistical Analysis of Retention In The Surface Warfare Community

This thesis develops multivariate models to estimate the determinants of retention in the Surface Warfare community to the Lieutenant Commander (0-4) promotion board. Using data from the Navy Officer Master File and the Navy Officer Loss File, logit models are specified to analyze the probability of Surface Warfare Officer (SWO) retention to the 0-4 board, transfer from the SWO community prior to the 0-4 board, and resignation from the Navy prior to the 0-4 board. The probabilities are modeled as functions of background and demographics, early Navy experience, and combinations thereof. The findings reveal that serving initially in a cruiser or destroyer, having children, being older at commissioning and being recommended for accelerated promotion more often as an 0-1 or 0-2 are all positive indicators of Surface Warfare community retention. Having a higher undergraduate GPA, majoring in engineering as an undergraduate, and being commissioned via Officer Candidate School are all negatively associated with Surface Navy retention. Based upon the research results, recommendations are made for the Navy to investigate alternative means of ranking year groups for service and ship selection