Asymmetry of the Technological Cycle of Disruptive Innovations

A vast literature exists on disruptive technologies. However, some fundamental questions are unknown, such as: how to measure the growth of disruptive technologies in competitive markets? How is the pathway of technological cycle of disruptive innovations? The study confronts these questions here by developing a theoretical and empirical analysis, which endeavors to explain the behavior of disruptive technologies that generate industrial and corporate change. A simple model is proposed to measure the relative growth of disruptive technologies compared to established technologies. This analytical approach is applied on the evolution of technologies in the U.S. sound recorded music industry. Empirical findings suggest general properties that can expand disruptive innovation theory, namely: 1) disruptive technology has a disproportionate growth in markets compared to established technologies; 2) technological cycle of disruptive technology has up wave phase longer than down wave phase (asymmetric shape of technological cycle); 3) disruptive technology has a series of major and minor technological advances of its own that pave the way for dominance on other established technologies in markets. Best practices for management of technology are discussed.