Evaluating the dynamics of grassland net primary productivity in response to climate change in China

Net primary productivity (NPP) has been considered as a direct indicator to access the terrestrial primary production. However, considerable uncertainties remain toward the response mechanism of NPP to climate change across annual and seasonal scales, especially for grassland ecosystems. In this study, the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland NPP and its prominent climate-controlling factor were evaluated based on the CASA model and ground-based meteorological data across annual and seasonal scales in China from 1982 to 2016. Results showed that the annual mean grassland NPP was 294.58 gC·m−2·a−1 over the 35 years; the largest annual mean NPP was observed in Alpine sub-alpine meadow (235.72 ± 13.21 gC·m−2·a−1), while the smallest annual mean NPP value occurred in Desert grassland (97.27 ± 9.64 gC·m−2·a−1). Moreover, the multiyear mean grassland NPP showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest spatially. Temporally, grassland NPP exhibited a significant increasing trend (slope = 2.4 gC·m−2·a−1; p < 0.0001) over the whole study period; an abrupt change point across the grassland NPP time series was observed in 1999. Specially, 66.34% of the grassland area showed an increasing trend in NPP, and the areas with a significant increasing trend were concentrated in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the northern area of Xinjiang. Further climate factor analysis with NPP indicated that NPP positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature for the whole grassland area. In particular, the temperature was a dominant driver in NPP variations for Alpine sub-alpine meadow, Slope grassland and Alpine sub-alpine grassland, while precipitation controlled the most in NPP variations for Plain grassland and Desert grassland. The accumulation of grassland NPP in spring and autumn benefits from the increase in temperature, and precipitation promoted the accumulated NPP in summer and winter.