The earthquake prediction status and related problems: A review

The problem as to whether earthquakes can be forecast or has become a matter of intense debate both in China and abroad; nevertheless, many empirical and physical earthquake precursor phenomena have been discovered based on the analysis of a large number of strong earthquake examples, and the emergence of the precursors more or less exists in different phases of the seismogenic process. In regard to the important theoretical problems related to earthquake prediction, researchers of different disciplines have proposed many different theoretical models, such as the behavior of active faulting, the law of earthquake recurrence, active fault segmentation and large earthquake activity, the probability of earthquake recurrence prediction, the seismogenic process and the mechanism. These processes have also effectively promoted the development of earthquake prediction research. However, the situation of earthquake prediction work is not optimistic in China, and there are still many problems which require further improvement,such as obvious deficiencies of the basis of geological structure and seismic geology, the insufficiency of survey and study extent both in intermediate-term prediction and in long-term earthquake, the lack of cohesion between intermediate-term prediction and short-term earthquake prediction, and the relative weakness of the awareness of preventing large earthquakes. Based on this situation and the conditions of speeding up the urbanization process in China, the authors hold that at present the most realistic approach to mitigating earthquake disasters is the strengthening of the survey and study of geological structure and seismic geology on the premise of persisting in earthquake prediction research. At the same time, the work of preventing and mitigating earthquake disasters should be strengthened at several levels, the seismic resistance capabilities of major projects and buildings along the strong earthquake and active tectonic zones or areas should be improved, and the whole society's consciousness of preventing and mitigating earthquake disasters should be heightened so as to create a favorable environment for the sustainable development of earthquake prediction research work.