On the Earthquake Prediction(I)——Discussion about some experience and its basic point for earthquake prediction in China

There are two obvious features for the earthquake prediction,including both science feature and society feature.The discussion is mainly focused on the science feature for earthquake prediction in this paper.It is strengthened that the earthquake prediction should be made according to some scientific theories and based on scientific observational data as well as using the prediction experience as reference.The division of the seismically active period and the seismically quiet period for earthquake tendency prediction,the division of earthquake pregnant process into the four periods,that is long term,middle term,short term and imminent term,based on the lasting time of the precursory occurrence and the so-called gradually proceeding prediction are discussed.In addition,the predicting thought that the seismic source might be found by looking into the precursors distributed in large area is also discussed.Moreover,we emphasized that the physical essence of earthquake occurrence at shallow depth and the basic recognition about the pregnant procedure should be used as the basic point to think about the problems concerning about earthquake prediction.