POLICY AND OPINION IN CALIFORNIA AFTER PROPOSITION 13

This paper examines the interplay of public opinion and public policy in California following the implementation of Proposition 13. Its results show that fiscal policies have become more closely aligned with majority sentiment and that lower taxes have reduced voter discontent. A statistical model is elaborated to estimate the perceived impact of Proposition 13 on taxes and services on current support for the tax revolt. Self-interested reactions to the tax consequences are critical, and whereas concern for the quality of government services has grown, this is based more on political ideology than private experience. These results are applied to the November 1984 anti-tax initiative.