Retrospective survival analysis of stage II–III rectal cancer: tumour regression grade, grading and lymphovascular invasion are the only predictors

BACKGROUND: Tumour regression grade is gaining interest as a prognostic factor of patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery for locally advanced rectal cancer. METHODS: A series of 68 consecutive patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated by neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery between 2010 and 2016 was retrospectively studied. The impact on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of several criteria was analysed. Univariate analysis was performed through Kaplan-Meier statistics. Multivariate analysis was performed through Cox regression model. Using criteria found to be related to long-term outcomes, a predictive model of patient's OS was calculated. RESULTS: Poor tumour regression grade - TRG3 (P = 0.010), poor grading - G3 (P = 0.001) and lymphovascular invasion (LVI; P = 0.030) were associated with short OS at univariate analysis. OS was associated with TRG3 and G3 at multivariate analysis (P = 0.016 and P = 0.027, respectively). DFS was associated with LVI (P = 0.001), G3 tumours (P = 0.046) and TRG3 (P = 0.045) at univariate analysis. At multivariate analysis, only LVI was associated with DFS (P = 0.041). A score, pondering the impact of three parameters (2 points for TRG3, 2 for G3 and 1 for LVI), was created and resulted to predict patient OS (P = 0.008), ranging from 94.5 months (score = 0-1) to 32 months (score = 3-5). CONCLUSION: TRG3 and G3 were associated with poor OS, and LVI was the most significant predictor of DFS. An easy-to-use score may allow for a more accurate prediction of OS.