DYNAMIC REGRESSION MODELS OF FORECASTING INDICATORS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY

Dynamic multi-factor regression models make it possible to take into account the dynamics of the proportions of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security and indicators in the retrospective period. The defects of such a model include the complexity of selecting indicators and determining their values in the lead period, the difficulty of forming multivariate static regression models, the development of predictive models of regression coefficients. Without paying attention to the statistical significance of multivariate models used to form a dynamic model, the values of regression coefficients over the years have all the chances to fluctuate significantly in the time series of these coefficients. The alternately decreasing or rising regression coefficients due to the modification of the impact of indicators on the dynamics of the values of the resulting indicator of socio-economic security often does not allow to create a forecast model.