Population aging and control of population growth.

This article describes China's population structure and the impacts of population control and fertility decline on the increases in elderly population. China's population structure shifted from 40.7% of the population aged 0-14 years in 1964 to 27.6% in 1990. The proportion of elderly increased from 3.6% in 1964 to 5.6% in 1990. By the year 2000 it is expected that the number of elderly will increase to 7%, or 90 million people. The process of aging will be determined by fertility. Mortality is expected to decline steadily and at a slower pace than aging. By 2040 it is expected that 15.4% of total population will be aged 0-14 years and 19.8% of total population will be aged over 65 years. The total dependent population was 33.2% in 1990 and may reach 35.2% in 2040. Although the dependent population in 1982 was 38.5%, the proportion of aged was only 4.9%. If China maintains a fertility rate of 2.0, which was the rate in 1995, the total dependency ratio in 2040 will be 75.9%, and the elderly dependency ratio will be 46.3%. If the total fertility rate had declined to 2.0 children per woman in 1980, population would slowly have risen to 1.5 billion in 2050 and then declined. It is suggested that to achieve a smaller population size and zero growth China must maintain fertility at a lower level. A higher fertility would result in a more balanced age structure but a great pressure on resources. Chinese citizens who adopted the one-child family norm will face the added burden of four elderly parents. It is urged that the one-child family norm be replaced with a two-child family norm. The shift to a two-child family norm would result in some short-term imbalances, but would result in a lighter dependency burden for succeeding generations and less fluctuations in family size and structure. A smooth and gradual transition to a two-child policy would result in a decline in population around 2030.