The 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum and Its Aftermath

Despite the relatively conclusive 55-45 per cent vote against Scottish independence in September 2014, initial notions that this would put the issue to bed 'for a generation' have proved to be wrong (see Withnail 2014). The political fall-out that has succeeded it has been profound and, most importantly, it has not removed the issue of Scotland's constitutional status from the UK political agenda. Indeed, the election of 56 Scottish National Party MPs at the 2015 UK General Election planted it in the heart of Westminster.The 2014 referendum is likely to be viewed historically as a critical juncture in both Scottish and UK politics. It has also had a rippling impact in other arenas of UK and European politics that may just be at their initial stages. This article reviews the referendum's impact and is divided into three parts. In this first part we examine how Scotland arrived at the referendum, why it was called and what processes led to it. It is only by appreciating these processes that the legacy of the referendum can be understood. Since the emergence of the SNP as a force in Scottish politics in the 1970s, it has been underlying political processes, as well as electoral outcomes, that have shaped the trajectory of politics.The second part will look specifically at the referendum itself - the campaign and the vote. It is suggested that the campaign process, rather than the referendum result, is the main legacy of 2014. By having the referendum, the SNP placed Scotland's constitutional question as the question in Scottish politics.The final section will focus on its aftermath. It was always assumed that a 'Yes' vote would have obvious far-reaching consequences (the break-up of the 1707 Union, the creation of a new European state etc.), but no one quite considered just how seismic the impact of a 'No' vote would be. The process of having the referendum has fundamentally realigned the political preferences of a large segment of the population in Scotland. Politics by its nature tends to be a tribal and partisan based activity with an 'us' and 'them' mentality that is an almost natural consequence in any political system. The referendum process has solidified unionist (a belief in the UK union) and nationalist (a belief in an independent Scotland) tribal divisions in Scotland. Although the referendum did not change Scotland's constitutional status, it did, however, significantly change perceptions, frames of reference and the overall agenda of Scottish politics. In essence the actors, arena, backdrop and stage on which Scottish politics takes place in 2015 have all been altered by the legacy of the 2014 referendum.Scotland and the Union 1707-2014Prior to devolution in 1999, the UK was often labelled as a unitary state because of the dominance of the institutions of the UK state in Westminster and Whitehall. However, viewed from Scotland it was more accurately perceived as a union state (see Mitchell 2014). The 1707 Acts of Union between Scotland and England left distinct features of Scottish governance in place. The 'holy trinity' of a separate legal system, religion and education arrangements were left in place. Through these, and the development of its own governing arrangements through the creation of the Scottish Office in 1885, over the course of the 20th century Scotland developed its own distinct civil society which over the decades gradually evolved into a distinct polity and political system. Scotland had separate educational and sporting institutions, media, professional associations, trade unions, voluntary agencies and the like (see Brown et al. 1998: 27-46). These organisations, combined with Scottish Office civil service assumptions about policymaking based around pluralism, consensus and compromise led to the evolution of distinct Scottish policy processes (see Cairney and McGarvey 2013: 154-170). The extent of the autonomy of these processes from the UK was debated prior to devolution (see Kellas 1989; Mitchell et al. …