2019•Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser IIOpen access

Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in CMIP5 and Their Dependence on Present-Day Model Climatology

Tomoaki Ose

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Abstract

In order to investigate the dependence of future projections for summertime East Asian precipitation on their present-day model climatology, the models well reproducing the observed climatology over East Asia are focused on in the analysis of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) future projections for the period from 2075 to 2099 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 global warming scenario. The future projection by these models indicates that summertime monthly climatological precipitation in future East Asia is more likely systematically decreased in some regions rather than evenly increased in every wet region.

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What this paper is about

In order to investigate the dependence of future projections for summertime East Asian precipitation on their present-day model climatology, the models well reproducing the observed climatology over East Asia are focused on in the analysis of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) future projections for the period from 2075 to 2099 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 global warming scenario. The future projection by these models indicates that summertime monthly climatological precipitation in future East Asia is more likely systematically decreased in some regions rather than evenly increased in every wet region.

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Available abstract

In order to investigate the dependence of future projections for summertime East Asian precipitation on their present-day model climatology, the models well reproducing the observed climatology over East Asia are focused on in the analysis of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) future projections for the period from 2075 to 2099 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 global warming scenario. The future projection by these models indicates that summertime monthly climatological precipitation in future East Asia is more likely systematically decreased in some regions rather than evenly increased in every wet region.

Key concepts: Coupled model intercomparison project, Climatology, Precipitation, East Asia, Environmental science, Climate model, Atmospheric sciences, Meteorology

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