RESPONSE OF PRECIPITATION AND ITS EXTREMES OVER CHINA TO WARMING: CMIP5 SIMULATION AND PROJECTION

Abstract Based on 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models simulations, the responses of annual precipitation and precipitation extremes (R95p and R99p defined by ETCCDI) to warming in China are analyzed. Quantitative analysis shows that the CMIP5 multi‐model ensemble (MME) underestimates the response of precipitation while overestimates the response of precipitation extremes over China region in historical period. It also has abilities in reproducing the relationships between the precipitation, precipitation extremes and the warming over subregions of China, and better performance can be found in precipitation extremes. Concurrent with the warming under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the precipitation and precipitation extremes are projected to increase consistently over China. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, as the regional mean temperature rises by 1°C, the precipitation will increase by 3.5% and 2.4%, and the R95p will increase by 8.0% and 11.9%, respectively. The response of R99p is much more sensitive respectively with an increase of 15.3% and 21.6%. For subregions of China, they all show positive response and the regional difference will decrease in the future. Moreover, the sensitivity of the precipitation extremes to the warming is higher than that of the mean precipitation. The stronger the precipitation extreme is, the higher sensitivity it will have. Besides, the response of the mean precipitation to the warming is larger in Northern China than in Southern China. The largest increases in R95p and R99p are projected in the Tibetan Plateau and Southwest China, indicating an increased risk of heavy rainfall and floods.