Schedule Risk Analysis by Different Phases of Construction Project Using CPM-PERT and Monte-Carlo Simulation

Abstract Construction project is an important activity along with the increasing need of infrastructure and residential building. Construction projects with different investment value and complexity level affect the completion duration of construction work. The higher the value or the more complex the building, the longer time required to accomplish the construction project. During the construction process, it is possible to find risks both from internal and external management which potentially cause project overdue that will lead to cost overruns. This study focused on assessing and managing schedule risk in three main phases of construction project, such as: feasibility study, design, and construction. A certain sample of residential building project was choosen as study case. In this study, mathematical approaches are used by performing CPM-PERT and Monte-Carlo simulation method. The results of this study can be used to help project managers to minimize potential risks by projecting simulation results and to assess if a project can be completed in timely manner according to given schedule.