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2019•Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)Requires access

Uncovering inflation dynamics in Morocco: An ARIMA approach

Thabani Nyoni

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Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Morocco from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that M is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable in forecasting inflation in Morocco. The results of the study apparently show that M will be hovering somewhere around 1.1% over the next decade. Policy makers and the business community in Morocco are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

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What this paper is about

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Morocco from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that M is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable in forecasting inflation in Morocco. The results of the study apparently show that M will be hovering somewhere around 1.1% over the next decade. Policy makers and the business community in Morocco are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

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Available abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Morocco from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that M is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable in forecasting inflation in Morocco. The results of the study apparently show that M will be hovering somewhere around 1.1% over the next decade. Policy makers and the business community in Morocco are expected to take advantage of the anticipated stable inflation rates over the next decade.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Inflation (cosmology), Econometrics, Economics, Time series, Statistics, Mathematics, Physics

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