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2019•Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)Open access

Prediction of Inflation in Algeria using ARIMA models

Thabani Nyoni

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Abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Algeria from 1970 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that A is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Algeria. The results of the study apparently show that A will ranging between 4.9% and 5.2% over the out-of-sample period. Monetary authorities in Algeria are expected to tighten Algeria’s monetary policy in order to maintain price stability.

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What this paper is about

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Algeria from 1970 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that A is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Algeria. The results of the study apparently show that A will ranging between 4.9% and 5.2% over the out-of-sample period. Monetary authorities in Algeria are expected to tighten Algeria’s monetary policy in order to maintain price stability.

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Available abstract

This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in Algeria from 1970 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that A is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in Algeria. The results of the study apparently show that A will ranging between 4.9% and 5.2% over the out-of-sample period. Monetary authorities in Algeria are expected to tighten Algeria’s monetary policy in order to maintain price stability.

Key concepts: Autoregressive integrated moving average, Inflation (cosmology), Econometrics, Economics, Sample (material), Time series, Series (stratigraphy), Order (exchange)

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