PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF STORM SURGES IN SURUGA BAY EMPLOYING STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL

Design procedure of coastal embankment in Japan compares tsunami height and storm surge height and employs higher value as a crown level. Estimation of tsunami or storm surge height is usually based on the historical maximum record or an assumed maximum value. Estimation of storm surge needs not only typhoon intensity but also its characteristics e.g. tracks and travel speed. It is difficult to estimate the probability of storm surges using only observed data since typhoon rarely attacks particular area and storm surges are seldom generated. This study proposes probabilistic evaluation procedure of storm surges employing stochastic typhoon model and applies to Suruga Bay, Japan.