Forecasting of traffic intensity on suburban routes

Information on traffic intensity is essential for development of measures to improve road traffic safety, while its forecasting on the roads is an integral part of the process of designing road facilities outside populated localities. This article considers and analyzes existing methods of forecasting traffic intensity. Calculation of traffic intensity on federal road A - 350 (Chita – Zabaikalsk) is given according to the procedure approved by Decree of the Ministry of Transport No. OS-555-r “On Enforcement of the Manual on Forecasting of Traffic Intensity on Roads” dated 19 June 2003. In addition, regression analysis has been carried out based on the data on the actual average annualized daily intensity on the federal roads of the Siberian Federal District and the number of residents of settlements located close to it. As a result of the study based on probabilistic statistical modeling, a correlation was established between the traffic intensity and the number of residents of the nearest populated localities on the selected federal roads of the Siberian Federal District. This was used as a basis for development of mathematical model of dependence.