A Cask Evaluation Model to Assess Safety in Chinese Rural Roads

Suburban roads are an important part of China’s road network and essential infrastructure for rural development. Poorly designed road curves and scarcity of traffic signs have caused an excessively high traffic accident rate in plain topographical areas. In this study, an approach to evaluate and improve rural road traffic safety is introduced. Based on fuzzy and cask theory and weighted analysis, a cask evaluation model is built. It provides a quantitative instant method for analyzing road safety in the absence of traffic accident information or rigorous road space data, by identifying dangerous sections and key impact factors, and ultimately help to put forward traffic safety improvements. Based on the application to a specific section of Xiaodang Central Road in the Fengxian District of Shanghai, the result shows that the pavement conditions of cement-hardened dual-lane rural roads was good, but traffic safety was poor. Missing traffic signs, unreasonable road alignment, and poor roadside conditions were the main problems. Finally, improvements of the short-stave subsystem were proposed: the location of guide signs and roadside conditions should be improved, and the number and efficacy of the rural road traffic signs need to be increased, and markings should be and receive regular maintenance.