Application of Conventional Forecasting Methods to Waterfloods with Horizontal Wells in Heavy Oil Reservoirs

Abstract Using horizontal wells for primary production of heavy oil reservoirs is common in Canada but it is less frequent to employ them for waterflood. As a result, very few papers have been published on this topic. Similarly, numerous publications are available on the use of conventional forecasting methods to evaluate waterflood performances, but very few if any have focused on waterfloods with horizontal wells in heavy oil reservoirs. This is what this paper proposes to do. The production performances of over twenty horizontal wells from five Canadian heavy oil pools where waterflood has been implemented using horizontal wells have been studied. The pools are thin and bottom water is present in some of them; oil viscosity ranges from a few hundred to a few thousand centipoises. Conventional waterflood forecasting methods such as Arps, Yang and logarithm of Water-Oil Ratio (WOR) vs. Cumulative oil production were used and compared. However, the focus of the paper is not only the comparison of the various forecasting methods but also the evaluation of the performances of horizontal well waterfloods in these high oil viscosities. The Arps method appears difficult to use, especially when there are strong variations in injection rates. By comparison, the Yang and the WOR vs. Cumulative production methods appear more stable. The forecast in cumulative production can vary widely between these methods. Ultimate recovery is expected to vary from a few percent OOIP to over 20%OOIP. This paper will present the performances of several horizontal waterfloods in heavy oil reservoirs in Canada and compare several waterflood analysis methods. Very few if any paper has been published on this topic thus the information provided will be of interest to engineers who are considering using horizontal wells for waterflood as a follow-up to primary production in heavy oil reservoirs.