Forecasting the Permanent Decline in Global Petroleum Production

In recent years, several published reports have assured the public that all is well with the global petroleum supply, citing new oil-production technologies and a record-high oil-reserve figure. Oil production has exceeded demand since late 1997, driving oil prices downward. Global oil consumption, however, is continuing to increase while new oil discoveries decrease. Petroleum is a finite resource, and the production rate will peak and then permanently decline when approximately half of the producible resource has been consumed. The United States has already experienced this; petroleum production in the United States has been in decline since 1970 despite new production technologies and energetic exploration. At recent rates of increase in oil production, the peak in global petroleum production will arrive in about 2008. All is not well with the global petroleum supply, and our society must begin to prepare for the changes that a declining petroleum supply will bring.