ScholarLens Back to search
2017•London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)Open access

Who will turnout and who will not? The indicator that could make or break GE2017 poll predictions

Patrick Sturgis, Will Jennings

Open full text 1 citations

Abstract

Why do polling predictions for the UK’s general election vary so widely? Patrick Sturgis and Will Jennings argue that turnout might prove the be the pollsters’ Achilles heel in this occasion. Getting its weighting right is likely to be both more difficult and more consequential than it was in 2015, because the age gap in party support has increased since the last election.

Open-access reader

About this research paper

What this paper is about

Why do polling predictions for the UK’s general election vary so widely? Patrick Sturgis and Will Jennings argue that turnout might prove the be the pollsters’ Achilles heel in this occasion. Getting its weighting right is likely to be both more difficult and more consequential than it was in 2015, because the age gap in party support has increased since the last election.

Why it matters

OpenAlex reports 1 citations for this work. Citation counts describe recorded attention and do not establish research quality.

Key contribution

A contribution statement is not available in the OpenAlex record.

Method / approach

Method details are not available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Main findings

Findings are not separately available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Limitations

Limitations are not available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Applications

Application details are not available in the OpenAlex metadata.

Available abstract

Why do polling predictions for the UK’s general election vary so widely? Patrick Sturgis and Will Jennings argue that turnout might prove the be the pollsters’ Achilles heel in this occasion. Getting its weighting right is likely to be both more difficult and more consequential than it was in 2015, because the age gap in party support has increased since the last election.

Key concepts: Turnout, Polling, Political science, General election, Demographic economics, Voter turnout, Economics, Voting

Related papers

Related paper 1Related paper 2Related paper 3
Back to paper searchBrowse research topicsOriginal source
Who will turnout and who will not? The indicator that could make or break GE2017 poll predictions — Research Paper | ScholarLens