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2015•London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science)Open access

Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously?

Oliver Heath

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Abstract

Many of the lessons from the polling debacle of 1992 have been learned, but it may be time to address the underlying causes of the error rather than just treating the symptoms, writes Oliver Heath.

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What this paper is about

Many of the lessons from the polling debacle of 1992 have been learned, but it may be time to address the underlying causes of the error rather than just treating the symptoms, writes Oliver Heath.

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Available abstract

Many of the lessons from the polling debacle of 1992 have been learned, but it may be time to address the underlying causes of the error rather than just treating the symptoms, writes Oliver Heath.

Key concepts: Polling, Probability sampling, Sampling (signal processing), Computer science, Political science, Sociology, Telecommunications, Demography

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Why the pre-election polls get it so wrong: Is it time to take probability sampling seriously? — Research Paper | ScholarLens